All you pro EV cars people need to listen to this

Have a listen to this magic radio Peter WIlliams talks to Michael Kelly about 600 Billion its going to cost to power EV moving forward.
https://www.magic.co.nz/home/news/2021/03/is-a-fully-electric-energy-resourse-even-possible--physicist-mic.html

What about lighter cars which use less energy to move?

For those that don't want to listen to this interview heres a few facts
we currently have a total grid of 43 thousand giga watt hours
if we take up the goals of the climate change commission and change to EV over the next 30 years we will need in the excess of 80 thousand giga watt hours which would cost over 600 billion dollars to upgrade generation and double the grid, on top of that our homes would need to upgrade its wiring from 60 amps to 150 amps to run heating, water heating and fast charging.
Another point is the sub stations near your homes are already at saturation point.
Another problem is the supply of engineers and tradesmen to do this 600 billion dollar upgrade.
we are going to need a 60 - 70 % increase of electrical supply in 30 years and its physically impossible to do ! eye watering stuff, and that nots including forestry, air transport, mining or farming

EV are made light, the batteries are heavy. they still need shit loads of electricity to power them.

Ive said it all along, its an engineer fact, " you can't get something for nothing"
All this asshole government is good at doing, is shifting the same mess from one place to another with loss and no gain.
Like the housing, take 500 homes with families, 30% are renters, so labour tax the shit out of landlords and they sell, you still have 500 houses, just different owners, does not solve the lack of housing.
Labour should be looking at oil and gas exploration to provide cheap energy for the survival of those that are alive in NZ today, who daily are finding it harder to make ends meet.

I have EV bicycle, it is a "hybrid" as I also pedal. It uses less energy than a whole car and the running costs are much lower so it makes it easy to make ends meet.

It is a cargo bike so I can take the children with me, and I tow a trailer for when doing the shopping.

Maybe we need more of these?

I haven't listened to the interview in full, but the same topic was covered in a 2018 concept consulting report:

http://www.concept.co.nz/uploads/2/5/5/4/25542442/ev_study_v1.0.pdf

The projection's in that report has annual power demand at 65,000 - 68,000 Gwh per year in 2015, with EV's making up 10,000- 12,000 GWh of that. There model was based for 65% - 78% of the light private fleet to be electric in 2050. Given the radio report was talking about 100%, the numbers seem in the same ballpark.

Key things to note:
- We will need to deal with power demand growth anyway. The report extrapolated the security of supply projection and got to around 55,000GWh in 2015 even without EV's.
- We will need grid upgrades, but this is nothing new or unexpected.
- Heavy industrial is sadly declining in NZ. This will free up some power (smelter alone uses 5,000GWh a year).
- Smart EV charging, (and associated pricing incentives) mean that most EV's can charge largely at night or inter-peak, meaning the load at peak time that they add to household feed's, substations, the grid etc should be minimal.
- Yeah we will need more power stations, but we have heaps consented at the moment, waiting for the market conditions (demand) to make then economically viable).

The industry has identified issues with a glut of highly experienced engineers due for retirement in the next couple of decades, and due to relatively low levels of generation development in the last couple of decades there aren't really enough junior and intermediate engineers in the sector to replace them.

Political jab's aren't really of value. The major political parties are Pro EV, and both have signed international climate change agreements when they were in power.

Not sure why you think oil exploration would make energy cheaper. Other than for natural gas, we pay the global price for oil products. Extracting some here would make the government some $$, but not impact pump prices. Think of NZ supermarket milk prices.

Light vehicles are the low hanging fruit for emissions reduction, so I think the focus on EV's is appropriate. The challenges regarding supply of power for light EV's are one we can overcome.

Sadly moving industrial heat users away from coal / gas is a much larger challange, one I don't have an answer for. The obvious answer is to just electrify the boilers, but the energy required to do so would be epic. And the decarbonising the heavy vehicle, marine, avaition, and off road (agriculture, forester etc) sectors pose a massively higher challenge.

I write this as a professional engineer, with an interest in generation development (but have largely worked in the industrial space). Also have an EV in a household with a 60A (i think) single phase feed. House is all electric (space heating, water heating, induction cooktop, oven, dryer etc.) - I do think I am close to the limit, and just 8 amp charge my EV at the moment. If I got a faster charger (or more EV's) I think I would need to get a charger with a clamp over the main feed wire, and the ability to shed the car charging if i turned on too much load in the house.

Talking about the power supply.
And then in 4 years times home gas will start to be fazed out.
More weight on the grid with cookers and water heaters go to electricity.

MAte simply added solar panels and charges his EV for free and sells power back into grid most of time.
This is like denying rock and roll is coming. it’s there, it’s being enforced on a global scale, and they won’t be making gene pitman records so we can’t sit here in isolation.

Maybe there could be a move to more energy efficient transport, rather than just having loads of heavy single occupant vehicles.

how long does it take toget from wellinton to auckland on your bike with the family in tow?

How often do you travel from Wellington to Auckland?

How long does it take you to drive your car to Australia? Use the right tool for the job, bill.

The 500 new owners would be owners of their own houses rather than renters.!

The next battery technology is already going into Toyota's prototype cars this year.

"Compared to conventional lithium-ion, solid-state lithium-metal batteries are much lighter, more powerful, take up less space, charge faster, last longer and present much lower risks for flammability."

"Solid-state batteries theoretically could store twice as much energy as a lithium-ion battery [for the same size]."

I have never traveled from Wellington to Auckland, but I dare say there is a train.

I guess a caravan or boat are not on the horizon?

your little toy bike is for local only. wonderful, do not stop praising it but put your comments in context.

if i wanted to go to aussie, i would go on a ship or a plane. but feel free to do it your way. do not take a EV no charging places in the tasman that i can recommend

How often are you towing a caravan or boat? I have several boats, but don't tow them daily. I use a car to tow if I am towing, but for my regular transport I use a cargo bike.

Use the right tool for the job.

That's right. Most of my travel is local, and I dare say a large proportion of the population's travel is mostly local also.

Not sure how it is a toy when it is only used for utilitarian purposes. I am not a recreational cyclist.

So what's to stop someone who owns an e-bike taking their car to Aucks, or a plane, or a train? I thought even a dinosaur would be able to work that out.

remember the dinosaur you mentioned is fueling the plane.

Great read thank you

My mate loves his Ebike, had a couple months now. Doctor reckons he can ride it again in about 3 weeks, if he sticks to bedrest. Apparently there are other things on the road, that hurt you.