And we dont have a viable alternative. Will there be chaos. Imagine no planes to transport goods around the world. No trucks to transport food to supermarkets etc. People living in apartments in the city wont be able to go out and shoot a goat for tea or grow a garden. What do you think the worst case scenario would be. Obviously oil wont run out overnight, but one would imagine fuel prices will rise dramatically once there is a shortage. The quicker supplies start to dissapear the nastier things will get if we dont have a viable alternative. So what do you think will happen. Gun toting gangs roaming the streets looking for their next food source! Is this a possibilty. Mad Max come to life!
nightboss,
Jul 20, 7:04pm
We will create an alternative source. Prior to using oil from underground our industries ran on whale and other oils. Oils from plants are one option.
The idiots in our society that believe we won't, are going to continue to be misled by the oil company panic starters.
motorboy2011,
Jul 20, 7:19pm
Oil will never run out. The issue is at which point it is not viable cost-wise to extract it.
cjdnzl,
Jul 20, 7:26pm
There's more known oil in reserves than has ever been used.The only factor is the cost of getting it.
friendly_prawn,
Jul 20, 7:26pm
A moot point. at some point the reserves of oil will be so low that it will not be a viable option.To all intents and purposes, it will have run out. Maybe not every last drop but enough so that we will no longer have the ability for various reasons to enable the use of it as a main stream fuel source.
friendly_prawn,
Jul 20, 7:27pm
regardless,at some stage resources of oil will get so low, for what ever reason,that it will no longer be a viable option as a fuel source.
thejazzpianoma,
Jul 20, 7:52pm
I think you miss the point these guys were making FP. Its not an overnight process, now we have reached peak oil the cost of fuel just gets more and more in proportion to income gradually as time goes on.
Because the process is a gradual one, alternative forms of energy will become more cost effective in comparison to oil and will be taken up gradually as well.
So there will be no situation where suddenly planes won't fly and supermarkets will have no fuel.
For example, every year you will see more and more people buying electric cars as their total cost of ownership decreases compared to petrol cars. Large aircraft will likely initially move to biofuel as it becomes cheaper than avgas. Richard Branson and others have been busy working towards this for a while now.
BTW, the cost of fuel in comparison to income has already risen significantly in this country over the last 15 years. When I started work an hours pay (gross) would buy approx 14 litres of fuel. The starting rate in a similar role today would buy around 7 litres of fuel.
Of course taxation etc has changed in that time so its not entirely a reflection of the cost of crude. But an interesting real world point to note.
chebry,
Jul 20, 8:01pm
Diesel engines will run quite happily on oil from plants like canola or peanut oil
friendly_prawn,
Jul 20, 8:06pm
I dissagree. i dont think that was there point at all. But ok, lets say it was, then you obviously never read my post properly. Where I stated. "Obviously oil wont run out overnight, but one would imagine fuel prices will rise dramatically once there is a shortage. The quicker supplies start to dissapear the nastier things will get if we dont have a viable alternative"
Sorry if that sounds blunt. wansnt my intention to be blunt jazz. Just wasnt sure how else to put it. cheers.
motorboy2011,
Jul 20, 8:29pm
The alternative is people will bike/walk/public transport. Eventually maybe technology will regress to where we live in small self sustaining communities and have little need for petro chemicals. It might not be such a bad thing to live more like they did 100 years ago.
wrong2,
Jul 20, 8:33pm
& when it costs more than anyone is willing to pay, oil will RUN OUT
arguing otherwise is just semantics
thejazzpianoma,
Jul 20, 8:40pm
No problem with it sounding blunt, sometimes my posts come out that way when not intended too.
I do get what you are saying but rather than state "what will happen" I am saying "it won't happen" . well at least like you are expecting.
Even though we have exponential growth in the world the nature of how the oil industry works and our resources mean that the "run out" period shouldn't be rapid enough to cause the sorts of problems you are suggesting.
I am not saying there is not a problem or that we won't see a huge change to how we use energy. that is a given. What I am saying is that we have plenty of "almost viable" alternatives that will become viable as the economics change.
So my prediction is for a seamless conversion. I am expecting a range of alternatives too. at least in the shorter term. There is no one magic bullet replacement for oil but we have a range of pretty good alternatives coming on stream that can fill the gap of the one.
Incidentally. don't forget oil isn't just used for transport, heating and power generation. The likes of the worlds plastics suppliers will be just as affected and our reliance on plastics is also huge.
Good subject tobring up though, the next few decades are not going to be anything like the last 100 years.
BTW, you might really enjoy Chris Martenson's "crash course" go to his website for the videos or even youtube has them. He does the best job I have seen of explaining the multiple challenges we face (financial, population and resource) and how they all interact with each other.
friendly_prawn,
Jul 20, 8:40pm
now why couldnt I have put it like that. lol
friendly_prawn,
Jul 20, 9:14pm
Well lets hope you are right jazz. I cant see it some how though. As you said, oil is just not for transport. Its in plastics, etc. When it finally starts to run out, I think we are going to be very hard pressed to start finding reasonably priced options to replace all oil is used for. I think we are going to be knee deep in it. going to be interesting times what ever happens. And you can be sure the price of everything is going to skyrocket.
elect70,
Jul 20, 9:24pm
Nat geo graphic ran a good series on thisscenario while back . Initialybiofuels ,towns&industry returning torail links ,abandoning citiesastrains (steam!) would be mainmeans of transportationno trucks, no planes. eventualllyaviationdevelop a bio jetfuel but very limited.Was well worth watching .Not a doomsdayscenario assome would say .
thejazzpianoma,
Jul 20, 9:32pm
Electric cars are pretty much already viable. Biofuel is already quite usable but not suitable for replacing petrol in its entirety. Power generation is covered by wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, hydro etc.
Alternative plastics are already making their way into industry too.
Trains can be run off the grid and even electric delivery trucks are already very much a reality.
We could switch over in 5 years without too much pain if we really had to, but luckily we don't.
Now all that said. the real doomsday drama we should be concerned about is the financial one. The Euro could have easily collapsed if Germany hadn't agreed to the latest bailout and there was plenty of pressure for them not to.If the Euro collapsed it could have domino'd all the fiat currency's including the USD.
Now THAT could actually cause the sudden shortage of oil and other resources that you are thinking of. It could also have similar direct affects to the man on the street even if oil was still available. People won't be buying much from the shops or travelling much by car or train if they can't afford it.
icemans1,
Jul 20, 10:40pm
there's plenty of oil, they just like to bull$h!t to keep the price up
xpfairmont,
Jul 20, 10:49pm
which is more or less the same as running out.
pebbles61,
Jul 20, 10:49pm
Would be so awesome to see steam trains, tractors and liners back again =D Everyone can ride a horse to work too! sweeeeeeeeeet!
friendly_prawn,
Jul 20, 11:18pm
lol
giddy up horsey
sw20,
Jul 20, 11:42pm
Peak oil. That was coming in the 1920s right!
mottly,
Jul 20, 11:44pm
exactly
motorboy2011,
Jul 20, 11:49pm
Wrong. Somewhere there will ALWAYS be someone who is prepared to pay whatever to get it. Same goes for gold, diamonds.
fordcrzy,
Jul 20, 11:49pm
its pretty simple really. nuclear power will be the only power allowed to be used for power generation. natural gas will be outlawed for cooking and will be used for cars instead. basically anything fixed in place will be electric powered by nuke power plants and anything mobile will be bio diesel or natural gas made from a mix of bio mass and normal natural gas.
fordcrzy,
Jul 20, 11:52pm
SORRY JAZZ electric cars are not viable. they do more damage to planet than gas cars. look at the millions of cubic miles dug up to get preciuos metals out of the ground and all the energy used to get those metals. zinc, mercury, copper,silver and gold are expensive to mine and chew diesel in the machinery used to get it. when people do cost/benefit studies they always convieniently leave out that fact.and the limited power and mileage that elec cars have is a joke
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